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April 2nd marks the start of the Max Gladwell New Year. It is our second anniversary and the first day of MG 02. First, we look back on the year that was MG 01.
The Max Gladwell calendar resets tomorrow and marks the start of a new year. The last 12 months have been interesting to say the least. It feels like part of a larger transition phase on many levels…economically, politically, and technologically. Health Care reform passed by no small miracle. The tech hype centered around the iPad, and the economy is getting back on track, albeit more slowly than most would prefer.
At the start of MG 01, we wrote up 10 Predictions for the New Year. In this reflection post, we’ll review those and see where we got it right and where we were perhaps too optimistic or naive.
1. We said, “We’ll pull out of the recession and start to thrive by year’s end (MG 01).” At that time, we were just starting to see the green shoots of a recovery. It’s pretty clear that the recession is technically over, but it’s far from thriving. We’re experiencing a jobless recovery. Wall Street and the tech sector have gotten back to business, but the rest of the nation is still struggling with double-digit unemployment in many states. The nation needs a major shot in the arm from cleantech and broadband (terrestrial and mobile) to encourage sustainable job growth. Nevertheless, we accurately predicted that any sign of a housing recovery amounted to a false bottom, as the market continues to decline in nearly every region of the country. We won’t see a bottom until some time in 2011 (MG 03), and even then it will be flat thereafter. Renting will be economically preferable for some time.
2. We said, “We’ll take meaningful action on climate change.” Alas, health care reform dominated the legislative agenda. Meanwhile, the global recession has undermined the support and sense of urgency with regard to the carbon problem. The best way to get back on track is to first solve unemployment and return to solid economic growth. Many would argue that a climate change bill that prices carbon will naturally have this effect, and we agree. But it won’t happen quickly enough to gain the support such action requires.
3. We said, “Oil will shoot back above $100/barrel as the global economy turns around and U.S. inflation kicks in.” This was perhaps a bit premature. The economic recovery hasn’t been as brisk as one might have hoped. Nevertheless, the threat of inflation and a spike in energy demand still looms, which will surly take oil back to triple digits. The one sign of hope, however, is the promise of a new gas tax in the Kerry-Grahm-Lieberman energy reform bill.
4. We said, “MySpace will finally offer a webmail service (yourname@myspace.com).” Whatever. MySpace is the biggest joke of Web 2.0. It’s legacy will be a lesson in how to destroy a front-running company and how users (customers) are ultimately in control of a company’s success or failure.
5. We said, “It’s seems inevitable that Twitter will be acquired.” Wrong. Instead, the company entered the mainstream with help from celebrities like Ashton Kutcher, Shaq, and Oprah. It became profitable with deals from Google and Microsoft. It also became a global phenomenon. Unfortunately, Twitter’s growth and success make it increasingly more difficult to find value and relevance. It’s possible that Twitter is too simple for its own good and that its lack of structure undermines its ability to scale. The value we get from Twitter appears to be inversely proportional to its growth trajectory.
6. We said, “Twitter rivals will likely emerge. As micro-blogging becomes as popular as social networking, Twitter will become too generic and one-size-fits-all for many.” It took the whole of MG 01, but Foursquare has certainly emerged as a viable threat with more 600,000 registered users in its first year and a solid foothold in the geolocation space. Ironically, Foursquare leveraged Twitter in achieving this success.
7. We said, “The mobile web is truly the new frontier, but it’s not confined to the online environment. Geo-location is the new local, and offline is the new online.” This prediction was spot-on. Thanks to smartphones and mobile broadband, we’ve entered a new era of technological growth, innovation, and entrepreneurship. More on this to come.
8. We said, “The iPhone will dominate like no other phone in history,” and “Apple will see $200/share.” On that day, AAPL was at $116/share. If you’d gone long and stayed there, you’d have doubled your money to $232 as of yesterday. And while the iPhone continues to dominate with 25% of the smartphone market, Google’s Android platform is growing by leaps and bounds.
9. We said, “Social media will be added as coursework at leading universities with majors and advanced-level degrees.” This hasn’t generated a lot of headlines, but the point is that social media is now squarely in the mainstream. It’s nearly ubiquitous, and this happened in MG 01.
10. We said, “[President Obama's] approval rating will not dip below 50%.” This was ultimately inaccurate by a few points, as we couldn’t foresee the lengths to which the Republicans would go to shoot themselves in the foot to spite Obama and the Democrats. When the Republicans were in power under Bush, the Dems gave them plenty of rope with which to hang themselves, and that’s precisely what they did. The Republicans aren’t willing to do the same. But what are they afraid of? That Obama’s policies might be popular and successful? If the GOP was confident enough in its own agenda and ideology, it should be willing to allow the majority’s agenda to play out and let the People decide. They don’t have to agree with it or vote for it, but simply trying to block it for the sake of blocking it makes no sense, politically or otherwise.
Enjoy the Max Gladwell New Year’s Eve tonight. We’ll follow up in couple days with our predictions for MG 02.
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